Cuando la competencia aumenta y las ganancias productivas caen, el capital dominante se refugia en las finanzas, financiando la expansión de un nuevo centro emergente.

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Arrighi analiza el "Largo Siglo XX" (el ciclo estadounidense). Señala que la fase de expansión productiva de EE. UU. (posguerra, el "siglo de oro" del capitalismo) llegó a su fin en la década de 1970.

Systemic chaos is the result of this breakdown in leadership. Arrighi defines chaos not just as a lack of order, but as a situation where the existing rules of the game no longer function, and no new rules have been established. This phase is characterized by escalating conflicts, trade wars, and a "general crisis" of the system. During these periods, the world-system becomes unpredictable and violent. The transition from British to American hegemony in the early 20th century, marked by two World Wars and the Great Depression, serves as the primary example of systemic chaos serving as a bridge between two different types of global order.